When a price is a probability.

A prediction market is a market for the outcome of a future event. Each outcome trades as a share that pays 1 if it happens and 0 if it doesn't — so the price, always between 0 and 1, reads directly as the market's estimate of the probability. A share at 0.62 means the crowd, with money on the line, puts the event at about a 62% chance.

The one idea underneath everything

Take a question with a clear yes/no answer: "Will this candidate win?" A prediction market turns that into a tradable share. Hold a Yes share to resolution and you receive €1 if the answer is yes, and €0 if it's no. So nobody rationally pays more than €1 for it, and its price settles at whatever the market believes the chance to be.

That's the whole trick. Because the payout is fixed at 1 or 0, the price is the probability. And because people trade continuously as news arrives, that price updates in real time — it behaves like live odds, weighted by how much money backs each view.

A sportsbook tells you its odds. A prediction market shows you everyone's, priced by the money behind them.

Odds, prices and payouts

Prediction-market prices convert cleanly to the decimal odds you'd see at a bookmaker: a price of 0.50 is even money (2.0), 0.25 is 4.0, 0.80 is 1.25. The two sides of a binary market always sum to about 1 — if Yes is 0.62, No is around 0.38 — with the small gap and any spread being the cost of trading.

Unlike a fixed bookmaker slip, you can usually sell before the event resolves. If your Yes share rises from 0.40 to 0.70 because the news broke your way, you can close for the gain without waiting for the final result. That's what makes a prediction market a market rather than a bet.

Why prediction markets matter for matched betting

Because you can buy either outcome directly at a transparent price, a prediction market is a clean place to cover the opposite side of a bookmaker's free bet. There's no commission skimmed from winnings and settlement is automatic. That's the engine behind matched betting on Polymarket: place the promo at the bookmaker, buy the opposite outcome here, keep the difference whichever way it goes.

The venues: Polymarket, Myriad, Azuro, Limitless

There isn't one prediction market — there are several, each with its own markets, liquidity and signing flow. The same question can trade at slightly different prices on each, which is exactly why seeing them together matters.

Venue	What it's known for
Polymarket	The largest and broadest — deep liquidity across politics, sports, crypto and world events. The usual home for the market that matches a bookmaker promo.
Myriad	Its own catalogue of markets and prices, adding coverage and questions the others may not carry.
Azuro	An on-chain betting layer with sports-heavy markets and its own liquidity model.
Limitless	Fast-moving markets, often shorter-dated, with its own price discovery.

One board across all four

Kept in separate tabs, four venues mean four searches, four prices to compare by hand, and four different signing flows to learn. amparo aggregates Polymarket, Myriad, Azuro and Limitless into a single board: one search, live odds side by side, and in-app betting that uses each venue's own signing flow under the hood. You bet where the price is best, and funding or withdrawal works from any balance on any chain — with the keys held only in your browser.